Trader Talk: Good night for sportsbook signups as Trump seals win

Posted on: November 6, 2024, 05:03h. 

Last updated on: November 7, 2024, 10:15h.

One thing that several sportsbooks operating in Canada found out on Tuesday night is that offering a US presidential election betting market was good for business.

Giving punters lots of choice on the NFL, NBA, or NHL front is one thing. Tapping into something generating the level of white-hot energy, debate, and division that circulated around the 2024 US Presidential election, culminating in Donald Trump’s stunning win on Tuesday night, is another thing entirely.

Trump a Solid Favorite Throughout the Night

While they couldn’t share specifics, the battle between the Republican Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris led to an uptick in signups.

There was plenty of interest early evening from Canadian punters (75% of it for Trump),” said David Merry, a trader with BetVictor. “Trump remained a solid favorite throughout the night. The biggest he ever went was 1.73(-137) at around 01:30 (Central European Time). He then shortened again to 1.44 (-227) within half hour and by 04:30, he was 1.20 (-500), and then kept shortening throughout the night until we eventually closed the book at 07.22 (CET) when he was an unbackable 1.002 (-50000).

“We bet the market to 100% throughout the early evening … with generally the best price in the industry on both Harris and Trump … so we saw lots of new accounts being opened in Canada.”

Rollercoaster Odds Movement

In Ontario, odds movement was a rollercoaster ride throughout the evening. At 8 p.m. EST, at BetMGM (Ontario only), it was Trump -200, Harris +170. It went to Trump -300, Harris +250 by 9 p.m., Trump -600, Harris +450 by 10 p.m., then Trump -2500, Harris +1100 by 11 p.m. as the cold hard reality of swing state results started to flow in.

At DraftKings, among Ontario bettors, Trump held a slight edge in wagering activity, capturing 55% of the overall handle and 49% of total bets.

We had solid engagement in the months leading up to the election, and saw more action come in last night,” said Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of race & sportsbook operations. “Customers were interested in live betting and continued to bet Trump despite the higher price. The one area customers won was on Trump to win the popular vote. This was certainly an upset, as he was priced at +250.”

It was much the same with betting at the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation’s Proline: final percentages to win the 2024 US election were 53.7% of wagers on Trump and 46.3% of bets on Harris, according to a spokesperson there. The popular vote was also an interesting market for them — Trump was the underdog there and had 29% of the bets.