The rise and fall of Canadian PM Trudeau’s political fortunes

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political options have narrowed after the leader of a small party that has helped keep his Liberal minority government in power said on Friday (Dec 20) he would present a formal motion of no-confidence in parliament.

The House of Commons is on winter break until Jan 27, but the statement from New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh was a potentially term-ending blow at the end of a bad week for Trudeau. He has been under pressure since Monday, when Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland posted a stinging resignation letter on X.

If all opposition parties back the no-confidence motion, an election will take place. A string of polls over the last 18 months show the Liberals, suffering from voter fatigue and anger over high prices and a housing crisis, would be soundly defeated by the right-of-centre Conservatives.

Here is a timeline of key events charting Trudeau’s fortunes over nearly a decade in Canadian politics:

October 2013 — Wins race to lead Liberal Party

Trudeau, the son of former Liberal Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, won the leadership of the party when it was at an all-time low. The Liberals, out of power for more than seven years at that point, had been reduced to third place in the House of Commons in 2011 for the first time.

October 2015 — Leads party to victory in federal election

Trudeau’s Liberals, campaigning on a message of change and hope, won a majority of seats in the federal election, defeating the Conservatives. It was the first time the third-placed party in the House of Commons had ever won an election in Canada.

December 2017 — Found guilty of conflict of interest

Canada’s ethics commissioner ruled Trudeau had broken conflict-of-interest rules by accepting a vacation, gifts and flights from the Aga Khan in 2016. It was the first time a prime minister had been found to have committed such a transgression.

February 2019 — SNC-Lavalin scandal

Former Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould accused government officials of inappropriately pressuring her to help construction company SNC-Lavalin avoid a corruption trial. The affair prompted the resignation of Wilson-Raybould, and of Treasury Board President Jane Philpott. Losing two women from cabinet was politically damaging for a prime minister who had described himself as a feminist.

In August, the ethics commissioner ruled Trudeau and his officials had breached ethics rules. Trudeau took responsibility but refused to apologise.

September 2019 — Blackface scandal erupts ahead of election

Shortly after the 2019 election campaign began, photos emerged of Trudeau wearing blackface when he was younger. Trudeau, a strong advocate for multiculturalism, apologised and said his life of privilege had come with a “blind spot.”

October 2019 — Liberals reduced to minority in the House

In the Oct 21, 2019 election, the Liberals were reduced to a minority in the House of Commons, obliging them to strike deals with opposition legislators to govern.

August 2020 — Finance Minister Morneau resigns

Finance Minister Bill Morneau resigned amid friction with Trudeau over how much funding was needed to help Canada recover from the pandemic. Morneau had also come under fire for his ties to a charity tapped to run a student grant programme.

September 2021 — Failed bid to win back majority in the House

Elections in Canada are supposed to be held every four years, but Trudeau triggered a national vote for Sept 20, 2021 in the hope that the electorate would reward his government for the way it handled the pandemic. The bid failed, and he was returned with a second successive minority.

July 2023 — Polls show Liberals slowly losing popularity

Polls showed the Liberals only slightly trailing the Conservatives in the first half of 2023. In July, amid growing signs of voter fatigue, the gap suddenly widened, and it became increasingly clear a defeat was likely in 2025.

June 2024 — Liberals suffer bad defeat in special election

In a clear sign of the Liberals’ growing unpopularity, the party lost one of its safest seats in a special election in Toronto. Trudeau made clear he would stay in office amid fresh questions about his future.

September 2024 — Key ally NDP withdraws automatic support

The New Democrats, who had kept Trudeau in power in return for increased social spending, announced they would withdraw their automatic support. This forced Trudeau to attempt to create new alliances to govern, but did not threaten to immediately trigger an election.

November 2024 — Trump pledges tariffs on Canada, Mexico

US President-elect Donald Trump said he would immediately sign an executive order upon taking office in January imposing a 25 per cent tariff on all products imported to the United States from Mexico and Canada, a grave threat to Canada’s export-dependant economy.

Dec 16, 2024 — Finance Minister Freeland resigns

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned after Trudeau asked her to take a lesser position, taking away one of his most loyal allies over the past decade and the person who had been Canada’s lead trade negotiator during the first Trump presidency.

Freeland said she and Trudeau had clashed on issues including spending and how to handle possible US tariffs.

Dec 20, 2024 — NDP promises no-confidence motion

Singh said he would present a formal motion of no-confidence after the House of Commons elected chamber returns from a winter break in late January. The leader of the Bloc Quebecois, a larger opposition party, promised to back the motion and said there was no scenario where Trudeau survived.

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