The Canadian Quandary – World News

By (Mrs) Amb Narinder Chauhan

The Indian diaspora has generally been seen as an asset for the Indian government in fostering relations with the Western countries. The Indian secessionist elements among the diaspora in Canada, however, have come to be seen as a significant hurdle to improving ties. Canadian Sikhs numbering about eight lakhs are the largest Sikh diaspora abroad, of whom according to Shri Ujjal Dosanjh, former Premier of British Columbia where they are largely based, a mere 5 percent subscribe to Khalistan ideology of a separate homeland for the Sikhs. Canada has taken exception to alleged Indian actions on Canadian soil to counter the secessionist propaganda, as blatant violation of its sovereignty seeking assurances from India that such alleged transnational transgressions will not occur in the future. From India’s point of view, it is a national security issue as Canada is seen as allegedly appeasing pro-secessionist elements. Without a common denominator to reconcile these differing perspectives, the relationship is likely to remain strained, despite broader strategic factors that would otherwise encourage closer ties.

According to Indian analysts, the fact that India and its Sikh population have turned the page on the Khalistan movement of yesteryear while it is simmering in Canada reflects the asymmetry between the two democracies. The political fallout between India and Canada also appears to serve as a lesson in changing power dynamics and state response. It is claimed that the response of modern states, especially those like India that are aware of their growing global standing, reflects a shift towards a more assertive foreign policy that prioritises national integrity over traditional and expected diplomatic niceties.

Despite the periodic lows in the relationship in the past the two sides have always turned things around in the true spirit of statesmanship. We last saw this in 2008 when the comprehensive nuclear ban on India, imposed by Canada in the aftermath of the 1998 Indian nuclear test, was lifted, aided, no doubt, by the coming to power of the Conservative Party of Canada which likes to do things differently from the Liberals. During this period the opening sentence of the MEA brief on Canada read, ‘there has been a significant transformation in our relations with Canada in recent years’. Given the current fractured relationship with no High Commissioners in place, return to normalcy will not only be doubly difficult but will also test statesmanship on both the sides to its limits.

Meanwhile, the Liberal PM Justin Trudeau’s minority government’s survival in office hangs in the balance. The next federal elections in Canada are due in October 2025, which are fixed at every four years though elections can be called sooner or can wait upto one more year to the constitutional limit of five yrs. PM Trudeau adhered to the four year period for his second election in 2019 but decided to call the next or third election just two years later in 2021 when his popularity had started declining due to internal economic and political reasons. The gamble was only partly successful-the Liberals outnumbered other parties but did not get enough seats for a majority government. PM Trudeau’s supply-and-confidence agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Canadian Sikh Jagmeet Singh ended earlier this year when the NDP decided to delink itself from what it viewed as an increasingly ‘unpopular’ ruling government and PM.  It doesn’t mean the liberal government will fall as normally to pass key bills and survive confidence votes ad hoc coalitions are formed with opposition parties depending on their legislative agenda. The Liberals and NDP still share common policy priorities, esp in the areas of social policy; the Liberals also have the ability to legislate with the support of the Bloc Quebecois on issues where they may have disagreements with the NDP. However, supporting parties always run the risk of failing along with the government they support when its popularity plummets. By distancing itself the NDP is actively preparing for the next federal election as it also sees an opportunity to depict itself as the progressive and pro-worker alternative to the Conservative Party. The educated voters in Canada tend to vote for the left leaning parties while richer voters go right. That is why Singh called out both Trudeau and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre for their support of ‘big corporations and wealthy CEOs’.

The pressures that Canada has come under from the US president-elect Donald Trump on upward revision of US export tariffs has magnified PM Trudeau and Canada’s problem which trades largely onshore-US. The Canadian Finance Minister has quit over major policy issues bringing PM Trudeau under increasing pressures to resign. PM Trudeau has, meanwhile,  inducted a few MPs of his Party in the cabinet. To add to PM Trudeau’s discomfiture the NDP has said it will no longer support the government in the no-confidence motion.

It is also a reality of Canadian politics that to bring about the necessary balance, the voters in the largest province of Ontario vote differently in the provincial and federal elections: when the Liberal Party is in power in Ottawa, voters elect the Conservative Party in Ontario and vice versa. Ontario has the largest share of 82 seats in the 181 member House of Commons in the federal parliament. Given the historical federal-provincial pattern, unless the Liberal Party in Ottawa is pushed out of power, an early election does not particularly benefit PM Trudeau and can backfire as it did in 2021. It is speculated that instead the Ontario Premier may opt for early provincial elections on the assumption that the Liberal Party may not get a fourth consecutive mandate in the national elections in fall 2025; Pierre Poilievre who is positioning himself as the next Conservative PM in Ottawa would be expected to take the last call on this. Even if Ontario does not go for early election, it would still be to the benefit of the Liberal Party of PM Trudeau which will contest 2026 national elections with the Conservatives still in power in the province. As former British PM Harold Wilson noted: ‘A decision on the election timing is a very lonely one’. It would be instructive to see how the 1.8 million Indian diaspora votes in the next general election in Canada.  

The author is a former Indian Ambassador and was Deputy/Acting High Commissioner in Canada from 2008 to 2013.

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