Scout’s Analysis: Team Canada vs. Team USA world juniors preview

OTTAWA — The round-robin portion of the 2025 WJC will conclude on New Year’s Eve with a huge clash between Team Canada and Team USA.

The result of the game will have significant consequences. If the game is won in regulation time, the winning team will earn the top seed in Group A.

A team losing in regulation could end up as the third seed in Group A and be forced to play either Czechia or Sweden in the quarterfinals – assuming Finland defeats Germany in their final round-robin game and ends up no worse than second in the group.

I’m not even going to try to enter into extended scenarios that could exist with overtimes or shootout victories and losses.

I’m having a difficult time describing the style of play this version of Team Canada is attempting to implement. The group has perplexed me so far in the tournament.

They haven’t played with a ton of physicality. So far, it’s not a team that consistently attacks with speed off the rush. They haven’t had a ton of great scoring chances.

One takeaway from the Germany game is that the power play looks like it’s more in sync than it was in Canada’s first two games. The coaching staff appears, with a few exceptions, comfortable distributing ice time pretty evenly throughout the lineup instead of giving more minutes to some of the top point-producing forwards in the entire CHL.

Outside of Canada’s elite goaltending, I’m not sure what to expect in this game. But there’s no doubt Canada has to be better than it was against Latvia and Germany to beat a very good American team.  

• Surprisingly, like Team Canada, the American power play hasn’t been as dominant as expected. Both teams have only managed to scored twice with the man advantage. Canada is two-for-13 on the power-play while the Americans are two-for-11. Winning the special-teams battle is going to be crucial Tuesday and for the rest of the tournament. These teams have too much talent. One of them is bound to explode and start scoring on the power-play.  

• The penalty kill has been solid for both teams. USA has killed 11 of 13 penalties (85 per cent ), while Canada has killed 13 of 15 (87 per cent) 

• This is a game that will focus heavily on the competing goaltenders. Trey Augustine (USA) and Carter George (Canada ) are two of the top goalie prospects in the world. To this point in the tournament, Augustine has been average by his standards in the American net (3.94 goals-against average, .888 save percentage). George, meanwhile, has easily been the top netminder, not allowing a goal in two starts.

• Canada has struggled to score goals so far. They need to find a way to create more chances around their opponent’s net by setting screens, looking for tips and battling for rebounds. Team USA prefers to handle the puck and make plays in motion. When they work off the cycle in the offensive zone, they are very difficult to defend.  

Here’s a look at the shooting maps for both teams. Team USA has been generating way more top scoring opportunities than Canada. They will give the Canadian defenders all they can handle in their zone. On the other side of the ledger, Team USA will be more than satisfied to allow the Canadians to direct pucks on net from long range and the perimeter.  

Team Canada has been spreading around the ice time fairly evenly. It’s a curious strategy, in my opinion. Gavin McKenna, for example, is the leading scorer in the WHL (19 goals, 41 assists) and averages over 22 minutes of ice time per game playing for the Medicine Hat Tigers. He skated only 12:07 in the game versus Germany. He needs more ice time, and he’s not alone.  

Berkly Catton has produced 14 goals and 33 assists in 28 games for the Spokane Chiefs in the WHL. He hasn’t had any puck luck so far in the tournament, but he’s been buzzing and consistently creating chances. He logged just under 14 minutes of ice time versus Germany, compared to the 21 minutes he averages with the Chiefs.  

If Canada expects to generate more offence, they have to ride their top scorers more. The strategy, so far, has been far too vanilla and the results speak for themselves. Players like McKenna, Catton, Easton Cowan, Luca Pinelli and Calum Ritchie are used to playing heavy minutes with their club teams. Scorers need more ice time to get a feel for the puck, establish a flow to their game, and ultimately play to their strengths offensively.  

Here’s a look at how each team has been deploying some of their top players, and their offensive production after their first three games of the tournament: 

Gabe Perreault 2G-2A 19:19

Cole Eiserman 1G-3A 13:08

Brodie Ziemer 3G-1A 14:55

Easton Cowan 1G-2A 17:15 

Calum Ritchie 1G-1A 17:03 

Oliver Bonk 1G-1A 21:47 

Gavin McKenna 1G-0A 14:32 

Berkly Catton 0G-1A 15:16 

Sam Dickinson 0G-1A 17:31 

Jett Luchanko 1G-0A 12:57 

• Team USA will rely heavily on their top line, which plays together at Boston College. The “BC” line consists of James Hagens in the middle between wingers Gabe Perreault and Team USA captain Ryan Leonard. Hagens and Perreault are the playmakers while Leonard does a lot of the heavy lifting in the trenches and is more of a goal scorer than distributor.  

• Team Canada assembled a line consisting of Gavin McKenna playing along side Luca Pinelli and Berkly Catton for the Germany game and it was buzzing. The players complement each other. McKenna and Catton are always in motion and Pinelli reads how the play is developing before finding pucks and directing them on net. Pinelli is the shooter on the line.  

High-Leverage Defenceman 

• Team USA’s Zeev Buium is the leading defensive scorer in the NCAA but he’s been quiet so far offensively in the tournament. He’s deployed in all situations and averages over 25:00 TOI. Buium’s best game is yet to come. He’s a very competitive player who plays fast and has a physical edge to his approach.  

• Team Canada elevated Sam Dickinson to their top power-play unit in the Germany game. He was leading the CHL in defenceman scoring before the world juniors (15G-31A). Nine of his fifteen goals are on the power-play. He will be tasked to shut down top six American forwards and add a layer of offense for Canada. His ice time spiked to 21:48 against the Germans.