RBC Canadian Open picks 2024: Best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

We’re heading north of the US border this week to the 2024 RBC Canadian Open, which returns to Hamilton Golf & Country Club for the first time since 2019 when Rory McIlroy ran away from the field. This tournament, of course, gave us some elite scenes when Nick Taylor broke a 70+ year drought to give us a Canadian winner (and for Adam Hadwin to get leveled by security) at this PGA Tour event.

The Par 70 course is quite similar in many ways to what we saw at Colonial last week. Driving accuracy and approach play are crucial and it’s a ball-striker’s golf course. Rory’s win was an outlier to some degree because of his length off of the tee because this isn’t necessarily a course that can be bludgeoned to death. That’s something we’re keeping in mind with our RBC Canadian Open picks.

We need something big with our expert picks too as the golf betting gods have been anything but kind to this point. It was a shutout against us last week in Texas so maybe Canada will live up to its repuation and be nicer. With that, let’s get right into our RBC Canadian Open picks for this week at Hamilton.

Note: All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through PGA: 15-118-0, -34.33 Units (1-49 on outrights and longshots | -4.6 units at Charles Schwab) | One and Done Total for 2024: $6,744,778.00 (Mark Hubbard $19.292 at Schwab)

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Top 10 pick for the RBC Canadian Open: Davis Thompson (+400)

Davis Thompson is a guy we’ve seen contend on the PGA Tour before, including within the past month when he finished T2 at the Myrtle Beach Classic. He followed that up last week with a solid T17 finish at Colonial. And the profile is enticing. Over the last 12 rounds in this field, he’s seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee, sixth in SG: Approach and fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green despite losing (slightly) strokes around the green. His short game has been an issue this year at times but his last two starts have seen that start to level out. If that continues this week at a nice fit for his ball striking, he could absolutely be on the first page of the leaderboard.

Winner pick for the RBC Canadian Open (0.5 Units): Shane Lowry (+2200)

In truth, I think there’s a good chance that Rory McIlroy (+400) comes back to Hamilton and gets the win with how he’s been playing. But I can’t bet that number in good conscience, so we’re going with Shane Lowry this week. His ball striking has been a weapon for months now but we finally saw the putter, which had been bleeding strokes, show signs of life at the PGA Championship, gaining in three of the four rounds. He also finished T2 behind Rory at this venue in 2019 and it fits his ideal build for accuracy and ball striking. If the putter stays solid for Lowry, the Irishman should be in the mix again.

One and Done pick for the RBC Canadian Open: Aaron Rai

We’ll unpack more on Aaron Rai in just a moment but, since we already burned Lowry as a One and Done pick (poorly) at the RBC Heritage, we’re taking the Englishman this week for a strong finish to get us on a nice trajectory down the home stretch for One and Done.

Aaron Rai to finish Top 10 at the RBC Canadian Open (+320)

We’re not making you wait long for the Aaron Rai breakdown. Over the last 20 rounds in this field, Rai is second in Fairways Gained, a key stat this week at Hamilton where being the fairway can be hugely important. Meanwhile, he’s made good on that, ranking third in this field in SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds. He’s thrived on courses that demand accuracy and ball striking over the past couple of years and, though he bled strokes with the short game at Colonial, he’d gained in his four previous events in that capacity. With that, I like for him to continue a nice run overall of late with a Top 10 finish.

Mac Meissner to finish Top 20 at the RBC Canadian Open (+275)

Maybe my favorite bet of the week and I wouldn’t even hate getting even more aggressive than a Top 20 with Mac Meissner. An up-and-comer to some degree, Meissner’s last two starts resulted in a T13 at Myrtle Beach and a T5 at the Charles Schwab. That bodes well for him at this course in terms of form and fit but the numbers back it up too. Over the last 16 rounds, Meissner is fourth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green at 1.397. He’s also gaining with the putter. He’s an accurate driver whose best skill has been on approach lately and might be in the midst of a legitimate run. It’s time to capitalize on that.

Kelly Kraft to finish Top 40 at the RBC Canadian Open (+210)

Talk about way down the board but there’s a good reason to be in on Kelly Kraft this year and in this tournament. Over the last 20 rounds, Kraft is third in this field in SG: Approach, first in driving accuracy, and second in greens in regulation. He’s played just four times on the PGA Tour in 2023, so the sample size is limited and the short game has been erratic but I can’t ignore that tee-to-green profile at this course, so for only a Top 40, I’ll take the swing.

Longshot pick to win the RBC Canadian Open (0.1 Units): Mac Meissner (+9000)

Again, I think Meissner is trending toward something big with the way he’s playing right now, so I’m also going to sprinkle on him to win outright. Let’s have a week!