‘Not seeing a lot of new jobs’: New snapshot on Alberta’s economy

The Business Council of Alberta’s latest winter snapshot has the province’s economy showing signs of strain as national and global pressures begin to take a toll.

While the province remains ahead of the national average in economic performance, cracks are beginning to appear in its economic foundation.

The report shows that the labour market is undergoing significant changes, despite the province continuing to add jobs at a faster rate than most of Canada, the pace of job creation has slowed markedly.

“October was a pretty good month for the Alberta labour market, we created around 13,000 jobs,” said vice president and chief economist for the business council of Alberta, Mike Holden.

“But if you rewind back for about, let’s say, the previous six months, there hasn’t been a lot of job growth.”

Holden admits however, prior to that there was, making the year-over-year gains significant.

“The number of vacant jobs that companies have, what they would post and positions they are trying to fill – they’re basically canceling those,” said Holden.

“So what’s happening here is that we’re not seeing a lot of new jobs being created.”

The report outlines that job creation has particularly slowed in the goods-producing sectors, including oil and gas, where growth is now less than one per cent annually.

Currently, Alberta’s unemployment rate sits at 7.3 per cent, with three unemployed people for every one job opening.

Holden says the imbalance is particularly concerning for recent immigrants, who are facing greater difficulty finding employment.

“Those are the people that are having a much harder time finding work, because there aren’t a lot of new jobs available for these new entrants,” he said.

Holden says there isn’t much opportunity for newcomers in Alberta.

“If it’s recent immigrants, people who have been in Alberta for less than five years or kids coming out of school, that sort young 15 to 24 age range, which is how it gets broken down, those are the people that are having a much harder time finding work, because there aren’t a lot of new jobs available for these new entrants.”

An employee works on a modular home component at NRB Modular Solutions in Calgary, Friday, April 5, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

Alberta still growing

A key driver of Alberta’s economy remains the growing population. The province’s population grew by 4.1 per cent recently, with nearly half of that growth attributed to temporary residents.

Migration within Canada also played a significant role, accounting for 23 per cent of the population growth.

However, future population growth could slow as the federal government has set new, lower immigration targets.

“We’re not creating jobs at a rate fast enough to sustain the population growth that we’ve been seeing,” said Holden.

“The biggest long-term challenge in fact, is Canada’s productivity record is so poor.”

The report also states that nearly 40 per cent of Albertans express worry about the economy, with many also expressing fears of job losses.

Holden says that lower interest rates will bring relief to consumers and businesses by having a positive impact on job growth.

However, it could take several years to see that reflected within the economy.