How the 2024 US Election Could Reshape Retail in Canada

There’s no shortage of analysis on the 2024 US election from both domestic and global perspectives. But what does it mean for the retail sector in Canada?

The outcome raises significant concerns, particularly around protectionist policies and President-elect Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on imported goods. As an exporting nation, with over 76% of our exports destined for the US, new tariffs could hit the Canadian economy hard—impacting jobs, household incomes, and reducing affordability for retail goods.

Another major concern is the potential for a “trade war” between Canada and the US, which could trigger retaliatory tariffs. RCC would strongly advocate against placing this burden on Canadian consumers, especially amidst high inflation. However, retaliatory measures are likely to target US-sourced grocery items, due to our heavy reliance on US food imports, as well as other consumer goods.

The only silver lining? Tariffs on US goods might encourage more cross-border shopping from Americans seeking to dodge higher prices—assuming the US doesn’t tighten its travellers’ exemption.

It’s also possible that President-elect Trump could adopt a more cautious tariff policy to shield US consumers from rising costs or that Canada might secure exemptions. RCC will be fully engaged in advocating for retailers in Canada during the transition of power in January 2025, just as we were during the 2017 NAFTA renegotiations.

Also see article: A Donald Trump presidency could be good for Canadian grocery bills – but at a cost perhaps too great for the country