France vs Canada Predictions, Picks, Player Props & Best Odds for Paris 2024 Basketball

Aug 2, 2024; Villeneuve-d’Ascq, France; Canada guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) controls the ball in the second half against Spain in a men’s group A basketball game during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

• Victor Wembanyama leads host France against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Canada in Tuesday’s quarterfinal action
• Canada was perfect in a difficult Group A while France finished runner-up to Germany in Group B
• See the France vs Canada men’s basketball predictions and best odds for Aug. 6 in Paris

Arguably the best matchup of the men’s basketball quarterfinals sees host France (2-1) facing a stacked Team Canada (3-0) at 12:00 pm ET on Tuesday, August 6, at Accor Arena in Paris.

Led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and RJ Barrett, Canada went 3-0 record in a difficult Group A, posting wins over Greece, Australia, and Spain. France, meanwhile, started the tournament with a resounding 12-point win over Brazil but looked considerably shakier in an OT win over Japan and a 14-point loss to Germany.

Despite having home-court advantage, Victor Wembanyama and France are sizable underdogs, sitting at +7.5 at FanDuel and +8 at DraftKings.

France vs Canada Picks & Predictions

• France +8 (-112 at DraftKings)
• Wembanyama under 19.5 points (-145 at bet365)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 23.5 points (-122 at FanDuel)
• RJ Barrett over 17.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Sascha Paruk’s Olympic basketball betting record: 4-1 (+2.66 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

Canada has a much better backcourt than France, which is relying on Monaco’s Matthew Strazel and journeyman two-guard Evan Fournier as their primary ballhandlers. SGA, Lu Dort, and Dillon Brooks will be a nightmare defensively for France’s perimeter shooters.

But Canada is also thin up front, where the strength of this French team lies. Dwight Powell and Kelly Olynyk will have their hands full with Wemby, Rudy Gobert, and Nic Batum. Canada was -15 on the glass in its final two games of the group stage against Australia and Spain. Only once in the three round-robin games did a Canadian player finish with more than six boards (Powell grabbed nine against Australia, when Boomer center Jock Landale had a game-high 12).

Canada has also had trouble closing out games. They led by Greece and Spain by double-digits at halftime but wound up losing both games against the spread.

Buoyed by what should be a raucous home crowd, I expect France to at keep the game close and come out on the winner end of the eight-point spread.

The point totals for the two star players, however, are a touch high for my liking. Remember, these are 40-minute games (four 10-minute quarters), which is why the game totals for three of the four quarterfinals are under 175. SGA hasn’t gone over 21 points so far in the Olympics and has looked very comfortable feeding the litany of shooters alongside him. I expect Barrett to remain the most-aggressive Canadian in terms of attacking on offense.

Best France vs Canada Odds

The spread at most sportsbooks is Canada -7.5 but the number has grown to Canada -8 at DraftKings, which is where French backers will want to head. The best moneyline on France is at Caesars, where Wemby and company are priced at +270 to win straight-up, while BetMGM has the best price on Canada at -303.

There is almost no variation in game total at this point, unfortunately. Every book has the over/under at 163.5 and there isn’t much range in the available odds. ESPN Bet has the over at -105 while bet365 is one of a couple books with the under at -110.

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