CFL Week 18 Preview: Brady Oliveira leads Winnipeg in big game against Hamilton

• Brady Oliveira carrying Winnipeg’s offense on his back: No RB has done more with less blocking than Oliveira, as he’s gained a league-leading 68.6% of his yards after contact.

• B.C. EDGE Mathieu Betts rounding into form since his return: He has the fourth-most pressures over that span (16) and ranks eighth with an 11.9% pass-rush win rate.

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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS VS. HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

The week kicks off with a massive battle between two huge win streaks. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are in the midst of a late-season playoff push thanks to four straight wins. With three games left in the season, the Tiger-Cats can’t really afford a slip-up if they are going to catch the teams ahead of them. QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been the hottest QB since Week 12 with a league-leading 12 big-time throws to just two turnover-worthy plays in that span. Unfortunately for the Tiger-Cats, they’ll have to beat a Winnipeg team that hasn’t lost since July. The Blue Bombers are coming off their seventh straight win, an offensively explosive 55-27 win over Edmonton. QB Zach Collaros had his best game of the season, passing for more touchdowns (six) than incompletions (five) and a league-best 93.1 grade. Winnipeg has already clinched a playoff spot, but a win here would lock up a home playoff game. So the Blue Bombers won’t be rolling over for a desperate Hamilton team.

MATCHUP TO WATCH: WINNIPEG INTERIOR OL VS. HAMILTON INTERIOR PASS RUSH

It’s unfair to Hamilton to pick just one of its elite interior defensive linemen, so we’ll highlight both. Casey Sayles and Dewayne Hendrix both currently have a 90.0 pass-rush grade this season, the highest mark in the league. They’ve combined for 10 sacks and 81 total pressures, the most by any interior lineman combo in the league. Winnipeg’s interior trio of LG Liam Dobson (68.2 pass-blocking grade), C Chris Kolankowski (59.0) and RG Patrick Neufeld (44.8) have combined to allow 11 sacks and 68 total pressures. They have a sub 92.0% pass-block win rate and will have to be that good or better since the duo of Sayles and Hendrix win at a 13.7% rate on average. 

PLAYER TO WATCH: RB BRADY OLIVEIRA, WINNIPEG

Since Winnipeg’s last defeat, a 16-14 overtime loss to the Toronto Argonauts in Week 8, there has not been a better RB than Oliveira. His 87.4 overall grade in that span leads the league, and his 91.0 pass-rush grade ranks second. No RB has done more with less blocking than Oliveira, as he’s gained a league-leading 68.6% of his yards after contact. He’s forced 25 missed tackles and has 15 explosive runs, two of the highest marks in the league. He’s also forced 12 additional missed tackles and added three explosive plays in the receiving game. Oliveira shines in all aspects of the game, and he’s firmly played himself into the Most Outstanding Player discussion. A strong finish to the season could cement the award for him.

CALGARY STAMPEDERS VS. BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS

After such early-season success, the B.C. Lions find themselves in a fight to hold on to the final playoff spot in the West. A Lions loss coupled with a Hamilton win would find the two teams tied in points, putting the pressure on B.C. to hold them off over the final two weeks and prevent the crossover. Calgary, meanwhile, desperately needs this one. A loss to the Lions would officially eliminate the Stampeders from the playoffs. This would be the first CFL playoffs since 2004 to not feature Calgary, the fourth-longest streak in league history. Calgary has been getting solid play from QB Jake Maier (78.7 season grade, 16 big-time throws versus 18 turnover-worthy plays) but will need him to play great if it wants to win this one. The Lions defense has struggled at times this season, so this could be a good chance for Calgary. As long as Maier avoids CB Garry Peters (84.3 coverage grade), he should be able to find some success.

MATCHUP TO WATCH: RT JOSHUA COKER, CALGARY VS. ED MATHIEU BETTS, BRITISH COLUMBIA

It’s been quite an impressive season when it comes to protecting the quarterback for Calgary’s right tackle. In 375 pass-blocking snaps, Coker has allowed just one sack and nine total pressures. His 98.5 pass-blocking efficiency score ranks first among tackles in the CFL. He’ll have a big-time matchup this week against last year’s Most Outstanding Defensive Player. Betts has not been last year’s dominant performer since his return to the CFL, but he’s still been very good. He has the fourth-most pressures over that span (16) and ranks eighth with an 11.9% pass-rush win rate. Both Betts and the Lions know he can play a lot better than he already has, and that’s a scary thought for Calgary’s offense. A big game from Coker will be paramount if the Stamps want to come out of this game with a win.

PLAYER TO WATCH: QB NATHAN ROURKE, BRITISH COLUMBIA

It seems that either Vernon Adams Jr.’s injury is worse than they are letting on, or the Lions are simply OK with letting Rourke get comfortable with the Canadian football game on his own time. But with the playoffs looming and the Lions slipping further down the standings, they’ll need him to figure it out soon. Rourke has not looked good throwing the football since his return to Canada, as his 57.5 passing grade ranks last among quarterbacks over that span. He has 11 turnover-worthy plays to just six big-time throws and a league-worst 67.5% adjusted completion rate. The bright spot for Rourke and the Lions has been his rushing, as he leads all QBs with 182 rushing yards and a 91.0 rushing grade. But he needs to improve at throwing the football for the Lions offense to get back to that elite early season level that it had with Adams Jr. at the helm.

SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS VS. EDMONTON ELKS

The Elks loss last week put a huge dent in their playoff hopes and a loss this week would all but end them. Edmonton sits two games back of the final playoff spot with just three games to go. Edmonton does have the tiebreaker over B.C., but the Elks effectively need to win out if they realistically want a shot at the playoffs. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson struggled last week (66.9 passing grade) but has been great all season, ranking third in both passing grade (89.9) and big-time throws (22). Saskatchewan has a chance to clinch a playoff spot with a win and the other two games go their way, but even a win alone would go a long way in helping hold on to its playoff spot. The Roughriders have the highest-graded QB in the CFL in Trevor Harris (91.8 passing grade, 78.8% adjusted completion rate) and a mistake-free game from him may be all they need to come away with the win. 

MATCHUP TO WATCH: WR TEVIN JONES, EDMONTON VS. HB AMARI HENDERSON, SASKATCHEWAN

While Tevin Jones isn’t the first receiver that comes to mind when thinking of the Elks (that’s Eugene Lewis), he’s been incredibly effective since he joined the team. He’s played in just eight games, but his 75.5 receiving grade ranks fourth in the league. His 2.27 yards per route run average actually leads the CFL among active receivers. He’ll see a lot of Henderson, who also hasn’t played a ton this season. The field-side halfback has played six games and surrendered 20 catches for 239 yards and nine first downs. He hasn’t allowed a touchdown but also hasn’t intercepted a pass yet. He’s surrendering 1.03 yards per coverage snap on average, a good but not great number. He’ll need to come up big if he wants to slow down Jones and this Edmonton passing offense.

PLAYER TO WATCH: CB MARCUS SAYLES, SASKATCHEWAN

While Rolan Milligan gets all the attention for Saskatchewan’s defense (rightfully so), Sayles deserves the spotlight as well. The field cornerback actually has a slightly higher coverage grade than Milligan (89.7 vs 89.1), which ranks second in the CFL. He’s allowed just 32 catches on 67 targets for 359 yards and two touchdowns. He has four interceptions, two dropped ones, and eight pass breakups. Sayles is allowing just 0.68 yards per coverage snap, and his 53.1 QB rating allowed is the second-lowest mark in the CFL this season. Sayles is having an All-CFL level season and he deserves the same recognition that his teammate gets.