Canadian groceries expected to be cheaper just in time for school year

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A new analysis that looked at food prices across Canada has a list of grocery items that are expected to be cheaper this fall. As classes go back in session, the analysis provides tips to parents who want to keep grocery prices from taking a bite out of school lunches.

Sylvain Charlebois, professor in food distribution policy at Dalhousie University, draws on data included in the university’s annual Agri-Food Analytics Lab report to come up with his findings. A full study will include prices and is due out in December.

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The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday and is expected to make another such cut in October. According to Charlebois, the rate reductions would save a family with a $500,000 mortgage and a variable rate amortized over 25 years $1,800 a year, the equivalent of 246 to 345 school lunches.

“This rate cut, and hopefully one or two more this fall, will provide much-needed relief for struggling families,” he wrote in an email to the National Post. “In terms of retail, consumers have pulled back and are spending less, including trading down at the grocery store.”

Charlebois suggests certain food items that are both healthy and economical. For example, grapes and strawberries are more affordable alternatives to apples and oranges, which have seen a modest price increase, he found.

Fresh meats and vegetables, meanwhile, varied in cost. Lettuce and cucumbers have become less expensive, while the price of onion and sweet potatoes have climbed. Poultry, such as chicken breasts, thighs and drumsticks have become more affordable. And while beef products, such as stewing cuts and ground beef have gotten more expensive recently, prices are expected to drop this fall. However, turkey prices are expected to be up in the air as their supply might be lower.

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The price of certain frozen fruits and vegetables are expected also to come down, making it a “flexible” and convenient addition, he added.

“The stronger Canadian dollar will likely continue to benefit consumers this fall,” Charlebois wrote. “These frozen items can be used in smoothies or packed directly into lunchboxes where they can double as a cooling element.”

As for pantry staples, the price of canned beans, pasta sauce and cooking oils have either become cheaper or remained stable, making it a good time to stock up. Canned tuna and salmon will become cheaper in the coming months, according to the forecast.

Dairy products, while modestly more expensive, are still affordable and good to throw into a lunchbox, Charlebois noted.

“Adding a small container of yogurt or a cheese stick to a lunchbox is still a nutritious and economical choice, ensuring that children receive necessary calcium and protein throughout the day.”

Charlebois’ analysis included the price of 10,000 food items from across Canada. Their prices over the next three months were predicted using a machine learning model.

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