Canada vs Spain Prediction & Picks – Olympic Men’s Basketball Group A (8/2/24)

After winning their first two games in the Olympic men’s basketball tournament, Canada is already safely through to the quarterfinals. Today, they will look to wrap up Group A play with a perfect record and perhaps deny Spain a place in the last eight (11:15 am ET, NBC).

It hasn’t been all smooth sailing so far for Canada, as they had to hold off a late rally by Greece last Saturday and turn things around in the second half against Australia on Tuesday.

But they are two for two, and making it three for three will see them lock up first place in Group A.

It could also see them eliminate Spain from quarterfinal contention, depending on the outcome of the Australia-Greece game.

Spain is 1-1 after losing to Australia on Saturday and defeating Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece on Tuesday. For now, they and South Sudan are on track for the quarterfinals as the two best third-place teams, but a Greece win by three or more points and a Spain loss could doom Spain to fourth, depending on Greece’s margin of victory over Australia.

Part of that will be moot if Australia takes care of business against Greece, as that will lock Spain into third. But Spain will still need to avoid a blowout loss in order to ensure they finish ahead of the Japan-Brazil winner and/or the third-place team in Group C (likely South Sudan) to lock up a quarterfinal spot on point differential.

Canada vs Spain Odds

Spread

• Canada -9 (-110)
• Spain +9 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 168.5 (-110)
• Under 168.5 (-110)

Moneyline

See more Canada vs Spain odds at BetOnline. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a bonus to bet on this blockbuster Olympic women’s basketball tournament matchup.

Canada vs Spain Betting Analysis

Spain isn’t the only team that may be thinking of point differential when this contest tips off.

Finishing as one of the two best first-place teams could mean a matchup with one of the two best third-place teams, and facing either Brazil, Japan, or South Sudan is a much friendlier draw than, say, Serbia or the loser of today’s Group B finale between France and Germany.

Entering the final round of group games, Canada’s point differential is +17, which is superior to France’s (+16) but inferior to Germany’s (+33) and the USA’s (+43).

Therefore, Canada may need to put forth their best and most complete performance of group play.

In their opener, Canada let Greece make things interesting late after leading by a dozen points with just over three minutes remaining. They did what they needed to do to close out a seven-point win, but stuttering to the finish could be costly with point differential in mind.

In their matchup with Australia, Canada trailed at halftime, but they shot 55.9% in the second half and held the Boomers to only 13 fourth-quarter points in a ten-point win.

One thing that Canada has done rather well thus far is defend the three. Greece (9 of 32, 28.1%) and Australia (8 of 25, 32%) combined to make just 29.8% of their threes. That success will have to continue against Spain, who was 15 of 31 (48.4%) from outside against Greece and hit multiple big triples in the fourth quarter to help secure their 84-77 win.