Canada vs. France prediction, picks, odds for 2024 Olympics basketball quarterfinals | Sporting News Canada

The Canadian men’s basketball team has been nothing short of impressive during their time at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Canada entered the Paris games as one of four teams in the vaunted Group A that was dubbed the “Group of Death” due to the strength of the teams within. After emerging from group play unscathed with a perfect 3-0 record, Canada’s reward is a quarterfinal date with host nation France, which went 2-1 during the group stage.

The stakes are higher than they’ve ever been as Canada is back in the Olympic quarterfinals for the first time since the 2000 games, where the program suffered a five-point loss to France.

Now, 24 years later, the two nations meet again at the Olympic basketball quarterfinals. This time, the star power is at an all-time high with Canada’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and France’s Victor Wembanyama shining brightest. 

As two teams with gold medal aspirations meet in the quarters, one will be sent home while another will move one step closer to the ultimate goal. The Sporting News breaks down the matchup below.

MORE: Updated schedule, results for knockout round at Paris Olympics

Canada vs. France prediction, picks

Canada is both talented and battle-tested, preparing this squad for the challenges that France presents. With that — and France’s struggles — in mind, Canada feels like the proper choice in this quarterfinal matchup.

As great as Wembanyama already is, Canada will have the game’s best player in Gilgeous-Alexander. The construction of Canada’s team is what makes the team so scary — things begin with Gilgeous-Alexander but RJ Barrett, Dillon Brooks, Luguentz Dort, and Andrew Nembhard have each stepped up in major ways during the team’s time in France.

And Canada is still waiting on a breakout performance from Jamal Murray.

Notice that each of the five aforementioned Canadian players play on the perimeter, giving Canada a major advantage over France, which will need Nicolas Batum, Bilal Coulibaly, Evan Fournier and Frank Ntilikina to hold their own against that group.

During group play, Barrett led Canada with 21.0 points per game, while Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 19.0 points to go along with 4.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. In the group play finale, Nembhard stepped up off the bench, and Brooks remained consistent in his two-way play.

For France, Wembanyama has been the leader in scoring, points, and assists, while his frontcourt mate Rudy Gobert has had a fluctuating role based on circumstance. France’s group play schedule ended with a 14-point loss to Germany in a game where Gobert was not a part of the first five to open the second half.

France went 2-1 in group play but trailed by as many as 24 points in the Germany loss and needed some late-game heroics to get past Japan in the game prior. With that in mind, the host team’s path to the quarterfinals has certainly been rocky.

The home crowd will make France a tough out, but Canada has already proven capable. They’ll meet two weeks after Canada earned a 12-point win over France in a friendly exhibition, giving some type of preview of what to expect in the quarters.

Prediction: Canada wins

MORE: Previewing Team USA’s men’s basketball quarterfinal matchup vs. Brazil

Canada vs. France key storyline: Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert’s ability to be the difference

While Canada has the advantage on the perimeter, France’s big advantage is in a literal sense.

The frontcourt fit between Wembanyama and Gobert has been fearsome on paper, but the two 7-footers haven’t made for the cleanest fit on the floor, as evidenced by Gobert’s role in group play games.

When the two teams met for an exhibition match in Orléans, Brooks drew the Wembanyama assignment, using his strength and defensive instincts to have an impact on a player who had a 10-inch height advantage.

Against Japan, France went away from its two-big lineups and did not take advantage of the interior presence of Gobert and Wembanyama. Going against a Canada team with a frontcourt rotation of Dwight Powell, Kelly Olynyk, Trey Lyles, and Khem Birch, France has an opportunity to neutralize backcourt concerns by relying heavily on their star centers.

There is a chance, of course, that Canada makes it difficult for France to exploit such issues. Canada’s strength lying on the perimeter works in their favor, as they can work to put both Gobert and Wembanyama in difficult situations by pulling them away from the rim. While Wembanyama has proven to be more malleable in such situations, taking him away from the paint strips him of his ability to protect the rim at an all-world level.

If France places early emphasis on establishing its bigs in an attempt to get Brooks, Powell, or anyone else into foul trouble, things can swing in its favor. The backing of the crowd will certainly help, but that alone won’t cut it.

Canada head coach Jordi Fernandez has been masterful with his game plans throughout the tournament, and he’ll be tested again, as it will require some creativity to make up the gap between the bigs in this game.

Canada basketball schedule

Canada went a perfect 3-0 in Group A, defeating Greece, Australia, and Spain to advance to the knockout round.

You can find its full Olympic schedule and results below.