Canada political crisis: Justin Trudeau expected to resign this week

Trudeau is likely to make the decision prior to the meeting of the party’s national caucus, which is scheduled for Wednesday.

The outlet Globe and Mail reported that he is expected to announce his resignation “as early as Monday.”

He is expected to seek to remain in office in the period while the new leader is chosen by the party. That process could potentially take a minimum of four months and a Liberal Party official said that Trudeau may want to play host at the G7 leaders’ summit which is scheduled to take place in mid-June at the resort of Kananaskis in the province of Alberta.

Given that the ruling party is expected to face at least one no confidence motion when the House of Commons returns on January 27, there is the possibility that Trudeau may seek prorogation of Parliament to secure adequate time for the leadership contest.

Of the 153 party MPs in the House of Commons, over half have sought Trudeau’s resignation and that number could be approaching 100.

Trudeau returned to Ottawa on Friday after a skiing vacation in British Columbia over the holidays. He had said he would “reflect” on the options before him during this period but there was no statement from him. Sporting a beard, his only public appearance was at the United States Embassy where he signed a book of condolences in memory of late American President Jimmy Carter. His official itinerary for Monday only states he will participate in a virtual meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Canada-US Relations. No other engagements are listed.

Party MPs are weighing multiple options including that of electing an interim leader which could mean that Trudeau’s exit is hastened.

The Conservatives lead the Liberals by over 20% in all recent surveys. In a fresh poll released on Friday, the non-profit Angus Reid Institute (ARI) indicated that former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, if made leader, would be best situated to challenge the Conservatives. Freeland’s shock resignation on December 16 precipitated the current crisis as calls increased from within the party for Trudeau to quit.

ARI said its data showed “that in an ironic twist, the person most likely to imbue the Liberals with some (though currently faint) hope in these dire electoral circumstances is the person who played a significant part in these challenges.”

Under Trudeau, the party’s support has collapsed to 16%, but it could recover to over 20% under Freeland. Other contenders like former Bank of Canada (and Bank of England) Governor Mark Carney, Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanie Joly, Freeland’s replacement as Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Transport and Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand, an Indo-Canadian, hardly move the needle in a positive direction for the party. There may be contenders outside the Trudeau government, including former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark.