Canada vs Spain Picks, Predictions & Odds for Men’s Basketball (Aug 2)

Jul 30, 2024; Villeneuve-d’Ascq, France; Canada small forward Dillon Brooks (24) and Canada small forward Rj Barrett (9) celebrate defeating Australia in a men’s group stage basketball match during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

• Canada & Spain face off in their final Group A game of the Olympic Men’s Basketball Tournament
• Spain will guarantee a place in the quarterfinals with a win, but will need help with a loss
• See the Canada vs Spain picks, predictions, and odds for Friday, July 30

Group A action in the 2024 Olympic Men’s basketball tournament comes to a close on Friday as Canada (2-0) faces Spain (1-1) at Pierre Mauroy Stadium in Lille at 11:15 am ET.

With wins over Greece and Australia, Canada already owns a spot in the tournament’s knockout round, and a third victory will guarantee first place in Group A. For Spain, this isn’t a win-or-go-home game, as the top two third-place teams in qualifying will advance, but a win on Friday will secure them a place in the quarterfinals.

Though Spain did well to bounce back in their second game against Greece (84-77), they’ll face a difficult time against a Canadian that’s getting its largest spread of the tournament from online sportsbooks.

Canada vs Spain Odds

Canada are 9-point favorites heading into the final group stage game on Friday and are getting a big -410 to win.  Spain sits as +320 dogs to win straight-up. The Over/Under for Friday is 169.

Both teams are coming off wins where the Total Point line stayed under: Canada’s win over Australia (93-83) was under its total of 179, while Spain’s victory over Greece (84-77) stayed under its total of 163.5 by 2.5 points.

Odds as of August 1 at DraftKings. Claim a welcome offer by using the latest DraftKings promo code. 

Canada Makes It Two-In-A-Row Against Australia

Canada clinched its place in the knockout round with a solid 93-83 victory over Australia on Tuesday. Despite going down by four at half time, the Canadians would rally and take the lead early in the third quarter, before going up by as many as 11 points in the fourth.

Though they were outscored in the paint 46-40, the Canadians thrived by scoring 28 points off Australian turnovers, compared to Australia’s 10 points off TOs.

RJ Barrett would again lead the way in scoring with a team-high 24 points, while Dillon Brooks and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 16 apiece. Barrett also tallied seven rebounds, five assists, and two steals on the night.

For the second game running, the Canadians were outscored in the paint. Australia’s showed their dominance on the boards as well, outrebounding Canada 37-33.

However, it was Canada’s relentless defense that turned the tide. Yes, Josh Giddey posted 19 points against Canada, but 18 of those came in the first half. Canada rallied by getting stops, forcing turnovers, and making their shots, going 50.7% from the floor,

Spain Bounces Back With Win Against Greece

For the second game running, Spain faced an early first-quarter deficit against a lower-ranked FIBA team, going down by as many as 8 points against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Greek national team.

Spain would quickly recover and go up by 14 at the half before seeing that lead all but evaporate in the fourth. Greece got as close as a single point but no further, as Spain held on for a dramatic 84-77 win.

The Memphis Grizzlies’ Santi Aldama led the way for Spain with a 19-point, 12-rebound double double, adding in three blocks and two assists for good measure. Real Madrid’s Sergio Llull and FC Barcelona’s Willy Hernangomez (formerly with the Knicks, Hornets & Pelicans) chipped in 13 and 11 points, respectively.

Scoring-wise, it was a tale of two halves for Spain. After shooting an incredible 64.7% (11-of-17) from beyond the arc in the opening half, Spain went cold in the second, going 4-of-14 from three the rest of the way.

This allowed Greece to draw close, powered by the 27-point, 11-rebound effort from Giannis. However, the Spanish 3-2 zone ultimately clamped down on Greece to secure the victory.

Canada vs Spain Predictions

I like Spain to cover the +9 spread because, if I’m being honest, that feels like far too big of a spread for a team that’s fighting to get into the quarterfinals.

No, this isn’t the same Spanish team that won the 2022 EuroBasket championship, even if the roster is almost identical to that title-winning team. However, they’re a veteran team that’s seemingly never out of a game.

However, Spain’s strengths (and weaknesses) seemingly overlap with those of Canada: push the pace, force turnovers, and try not to get beat in the post. The downside for Spain? Wherever they’re strong on the court, Canada is just that much stronger.

That doesn’t mean Canada will run away with this one, but they’ll be good to lock up the top spot of Group A.

Canada vs Spain Picks:

• Spain +9 (-110)
• Over 169 (-112)