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Argentina vs Canada Prop Picks & Best Bets – Tuesday, July 9

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2 months ago

July 9, 2024

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Argentina vs Canada Prop Picks & Best Bets – Tuesday, July 9

Prop bet #1: Lautaro lights it up

Lautaro Martinez started this tournament on the bench for Argentina, but it didn’t take the Inter Milan man long to make his case to Lionel Scaloni.

Martinez was the Argentines’ super sub in the first two group games, scoring against Canada and Chile. That earned him a start ahead of Julian Alvarez against Peru and he was the difference-maker again with two more goals.

This pick boils down to Martinez arriving in red-hot form. I expect Argentina to dominate possession — and there’s no shortage of playmakers to find the killer pass for Martinez, from Alexis Mac Allister to Rodrigo De Paul to Messi.

Canada are coming off a disastrous defensive lapse against Venezuela, and although Alphonso Davies & Co. were otherwise steady at the back, it only requires one chance for Martinez to pounce and cash in this prop.

It took the World Cup champs until the second half to break through against Canada in the Copa America opener, but I see a more assured start from the favorites in this semifinal — and that should mean scoring chances for Martinez

Lautaro Martinez prop: Anytime goalscorer (+118 at Betano)

Prop bet #2: Highway to the David zone

There were high hopes for the next phase of the Jonathan David-Cyle Larin strikeforce at this tournament, but the returns have been somewhat underwhelming.

That feels like nitpicking to some extent when Canada have reached the last four, but Larin has looked short of confidence and David only has one shot on target so far.

Still, I’m optimistic about David posing problems for Argentina’s defense. That one shot on target proved to be the crucial winning goal against Peru during the group stage and he showed no nerves in firing home his penalty in the quarterfinal shootout.

With Davies expected to continue at left back, taking the Messi assignment, David stands out as one of Canada’s most dangerous attackers, along with Jacob Shaffelburg, and I like these odds for the Lille striker to register at least one attempt on goal. He was lively against Venezuela with three shots, though none on target.

The speculation continues as to whether David will make a big-money move to the Premier League this summer, and there will be no better chance to prove he’s a big-game player.

Jonathan David prop: Over 0.5 shots on target (+102 at Betano)

Prop bet #3: Derek dives in

The Canadians have been beneficiaries of the Copa America rules that reset yellow card tallies after the group stage with Derek Cornelius available for this semifinal despite collecting two bookings already at the tournament.

Cornelius picked up a yellow card against Argentina in their Group A clash and another against the Venezuelans, and he’s going to have his hands full again in his matchup with Lautaro Martinez.

That’s not all. As Canada’s left-sided center-back, he’ll also be on high alert for Messi’s roaming runs inside from the right wing. Cornelius loves a full-blooded challenge and I expect there to be a moment when the game gets stretched and he’s faced with a lightning Argentine counter-attack.

There will surely be periods of this semifinal where the Canadians are penned in and defending for their lives — and nerves could also be a factor.

At this price, I’m wagering on Cornelius, who’s admittedly had an excellent tournament alongside Moise Bombito in the Canada defense, to find his way into the referee’s notebook.

Derek Cornelius prop: To receive a card – Yes (+225 at Betano)