Who will win the RBC Canadian Open in 2024? Odds, betting favorites, expert picks and more to know | Sporting News Canada

Rory McIlroy, fresh off victories at the Zurich Classic and Wells Fargo Championship, finished T12 at the PGA Championship last weekend. Now the No. 2 ranked golfer in the world looks to build on his latest string of success by winning the RBC Canadian Open for the third time in six years.

With multiple big names missing from the field this weekend — most notably Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele — McIlroy enters the tournament a heavy +400 favorite to take home the Canadian Open trophy (no other golfer has outright odds shorter than +1600). The three-time FedEx Cup champion has 26 career PGA Tour wins and 10 international victories to his name.

Tickets: Canadian Open prices start as low as $85 on StubHub

Of course, that doesn’t guarantee McIlroy will win his third Canadian Open. He will be facing tough competition from a strong field, headlined by PGA Tour stars Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala, Corey Conners and McIlroy’s Zurich Classic teammate Shane Lowry. And don’t forget about reigning RBC Canadian champ Nick Taylor, who sank a 72-foot eagle putt to triumph in Toronto last year.

But who among these top golfers will take home the Canadian Open trophy in 2024? The Sporting News breaks down the odds and best bets to win Canada’s national championship in 2024.

Canadian Open odds 2024

Rory McIlroy (+400) enters the RBC Canadian Open favorited to win the event, according to odds from Sports Interaction. The World No. 3 golfer has been on fire over the past month, winning two of his past three starts and finishing in the top 12 of the PGA Championship last weekend.

McIlroy has been dominant off the tee, ranked third on TOUR in SG:OTT and first in both driving distance and total driving. He won this event in 2019 and 2022, the former of which was the last time Hamilton Golf and Country Club hosted it. His +400 odds give him a 20-percent implied probability of taking down his third Canadian Open trophy. 

Tommy Fleetwood (+1600), the runner-up of the 2023 Canadian Open, is the only other golfer in the field with better than 20-1 odds to win. Fleetwood finished 17 under par in last year’s event but lost to Nick Taylor on a miracle putt on the fourth playoff hole. The 33-year-old Brit has recently enjoyed a strong run, including a T3 at the Masters.

Sahith Theegala (+2000), PGA pro Keith Stewart’s Canadian Open betting pick to win, has five top-10 finishes in the 2024 PGA season but no wins as of yet. Currently ranked 12th on the OWGR, Theegala finished T38 in last year’s event. 

Four other golfers have odds of 25-1 or better to win the Canadian Open, including Ontario native Corey Conners (+2200), McIlroy’s Zurich Classic running mate Shane Lowry (+2200), red-hot Swedish veteran Alex Noren (+2500), and OWGR No. 18-ranked Cameron Young (+2500). 

Below are the odds for the top golfers in this year’s RBC Canadian Open, courtesy of SIA. Only competitors with odds of 100-1 or better odds to win the tournament are listed.

Canadian Open course breakdown: Hamilton Golf and Country Club

The RBC Canadian Open will be played at Hamilton Golf and Country Club in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, Ontario. The event was last held at Hamilton in 2019, when McIlroy won (22 under). McIlroy had a chance for a final-round 59, but bogeyed the last hole to card a 61 and win the tournament by seven strokes.

Renowned British golf architect Harry Colt designed the course. The par-70 layout at Hamilton measures 7,084 yards, featuring two par 5s, four par 3s, and 12 par 4s. Those 12 par 4s have an average length of 397 yards, but four of them stretch well over 450 yards.

Naturally, the lengthier holes and 38 acres of fairway grass favor the longest bombers in the field. That means players with solid strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT) and consistent ball-striking should fare well, hence McIlroy’s past success at Hamilton. 

Nine holes at Hamilton have a birdie rate of over 15 percent, and 11 feature a bogey rate over that same amount. As Sporting News and Read the Line PGA Pro Keith Stewart explained in his Canadian Open best bets, “scoring at Hamilton is a well-rounded challenge. Three of the par 3s rank in the top four toughest holes on the course.”

Driving accuracy will be just as important this weekend, as there are numerous obstacles including thick rough, amplified slopes, and 60 bunkers. It’s obviously imperative for contenders to hit the fairways as frequently as possible to set up high-percentage second shots into each hole.

As such, strokes gained on approach (SG:APP) will also be a determining factor for the winner. Golfers who can get the ball near the hole and consistently log greens in regulation (GIR) will have a better chance to go low at this difficult course.

Best bets to win 2024 RBC Canadian Open

Anyone planning to bet on the Canadian Open has to consider putting Rory McIlroy (+400) on their card. The world’s No. 3 golfer has been in tremendous form as of late, coming away with wins at the Zurich Classic and the Wells Fargo Championship and then finishing top 12 at the PGA Championship.

McIlroy has won two of the past three Canadian Opens, including a dominant performance on this same course in 2019. He rode an incredible final-round 61 to a 22-under 258 that year, running away with the trophy with a seven-shot victory. 

Tommy Fleetwood (+1600) is the other top option among the favorites. Fleetwood has tremendous driving accuracy, he’s one of the most proficient par-4 scorers on TOUR, and he enters the weekend in solid recent form with four top-13 finishes over his past eight tournaments. Fleetwood carded a remarkable 17-under at this event last year at Oakdale, ultimately losing to Nick Taylor on the fourth playoff hole. 

Canadian Open value picks for top-10 finish, DFS lineups

Want a solid alternative to betting an outright winner for Canada’s national championship? Consider Sahith Theegala to finish in the top 10 (+188). Theegala’s +2000 odds to win are the third-shortest in the field, so +188 to finish amongst the 10 best seems like solid value. He’s coming off a T12 finish at the PGA Championship, which featured a far more star-studded field, and he has top-10 finishes in five of his past 10 tournaments.

Maverick McNealy to finish in the top 10 (+300) also seems like a high-value wager. McNealy ranks top-20 on TOUR off the tee and among the top 12 in par-4 scoring. He’s also a fantastic scrambler, which can come in handy throughout Hamilton’s extensive rough patches and vast bunker systems. With strong top-25 performances at the PGA and the Charles Schwab, McNealy seems like a great sleeper for a top-10 or even a top-20 bet at +150.

Canadian Open sleeper pick

Akshay Bhatia (+5000) has enjoyed a solid season, emerging from a weekly long shot to a consistently-solid outright sleeper. He won the Valero Texas Open in a playoff over Denny McCarthy, he ranks top-10 in SG:APP, and his polished overall game makes him an automatic contender for the Canadian Open trophy. He seems priced far too low here.

RBC Canadian Open winners by year

Nick Taylor is the reigning winner of the Canadian Open, and the first Canadian-born winner since 1954. He shot 17-under par during the 2023 event, capping off an unforgettable tournament with a 72-foot eagle putt that dominated social media for weeks. 

Rory McIlroy has won two of the past three Canadian Opens, including the last one held at Hamilton Golf and Country Club (2019). McIlroy had a spectacular final-round 61 during his 2019 run, with a bogey on 18 keeping him from a career-best 59.

Below is a full look at the history of Canadian Open winners since 1958. The event was not held in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID.