2024 RBC Canadian Open expert picks, odds: Rory McIlroy favored to win it again

Rory McIlroy has teed it up at the RBC Canadian Open only three times, but he’s twice won the crown. Will he make it three for four this weekend?

This week, the PGA Tour heads north to Canada for the RBC Canadian Open. The 2023 RBC Canadian Open was one for the history books as a native son, Nick Taylor, won dramatically in a playoff over Tommy Fleetwood. Taylor’s winning putt has been immortalized as part of the RBC Candian Open’s logo in 2024. Taylor will defend his title at Hamilton Golf and Country Club, which last hosted the Canadian Open in 2019.

Rory McIlroy won here in 2019, but he will be facing a different golf course than he did that day. Since the 2019 edition, Hamilton Golf and Country Club has been redesigned by architect Martin Ebert. Bunkers have been removed and the greens have been enlarged with the collars taken out while featuring shaved runoff areas. The golf course only measures 7,084 yards.

In 2019, the leaderboard was packed on Saturday, with Matt Kuchar, Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, and Webb Simpson all poised to push for a title while Adam Hadwin had his best shot to capture a Canadian Open. McIlroy overpowered the golf course on Sunday to win by 7 strokes over his good buddy, Shane Lowry, and Webb Simpson. While the golf course has changed since then, I’m not sure it has been Rory-proofed when it comes to length off the tee being able to overpower it.

How I’m building my projection model this week: Course history and historical statistics are taking a backseat. Current form takes center stage, and I’ve built two different models to come up with the best scenario for DFS lineups. The first model will feature driver distance, while the second will weigh accuracy off the tee a little more. Both models will feature strokes gained on approach, strokes gained from 100-125 yards, and strokes gained from 150-175 yards. The old setup of the course seemed to bring out the best in the short-game specialists, so I will include putting in the models.

Course information

Course: Hamilton Golf and Country Club — Ancaster, Ontario, Canada

Designed by: Harry S. Colt, Redesigned by Martin Ebert

Par: 70

Yardage: 7,058 Yards

Average green size: 6,000 square feet

Features: Martin Ebert’s redesign took out 16 bunkers on the golf course and enlarged the greens while changing the areas around the greens. The greens are bent grass while not allowing the Poa annua to creep in. The golf course has continued to take out trees that changed the landscape while also cutting down the rough a bit. The weather was wet early in the week, so I expect the rough to be lush. The routing through the West and South courses should work well, and I am excited to see the changes to the golf course.

Odds for RBC Canadian Open winner

All odds from BetMGM.

Betting Slip

Rory McIlroy (+400) was a cold putter away from contending at the PGA Championship. A T12 isn’t too shabby when you consider he lost strokes on the greens. He won the Zurich Classic alongside Shane Lowry and the Wells Fargo Championship leading up to that PGA Championship. He gained over 11.5 strokes off the tee and 9.5 strokes on approach combined over his last two tournaments. The field is weak, and Rory has won two of the last three RBC Candian Opens contested. I don’t love taking short favorites, but Rory outclasses this field by a landslide.

Alex Norén (+2500) is playing some of the best golf of his career with eight straight top-25 finishes, including a T12 at the PGA Championship, where he gained over 4.7 strokes on approach. Noren won’t overpower this golf course, but he can use his iron play and excellent around-the-green game to contend.

Cameron Young (+2500) struggled with his approach shots at the PGA Championship more than he has in his entire PGA Tour career. He lost over 5 strokes on approach on the weekend. I expect him to bounce back from those numbers this week and use his off-the-tee game to set himself up for success. He has gained over 4 strokes on the field off the tee in three of his last five tournaments.

Keith Mitchell (+4000) has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in ten straight measured tournaments. He has been cold with the putter so his name falls a little lower than it should in my model this week. He’s been slightly better around the green since the Zurich Classic and is a hot putter away from contending.

Davis Thompson (+5500) has gained over 2.5 strokes off the tee in four of his last five measured events and three straight. He backed up his T2 at the Myrtle Beach Open with a solid T17 at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week.

DFS Plays

Rory McIlroy ($12,100) See above.

Sahith Theegala ($10,500) has four top-12 finishes in his last eight events, including a T12 at the PGA Championship, where he gained more than 4 strokes ball-striking for the week. He has been inconsistent around the green, but he has popped with his putter in three of his last six measured events.

Alex Noren ($9,900) See above.

Cameron Young ($9,800) See above.

Maverick McNealy ($9,200) has gained strokes off the tee in nine straight measured events. His price is a little steep this week, even with his improved form. He was only $7,700 last week and finished T17. I’m a big fan of his game and am so happy he is healthy, but I will be underweight on him this week.

Adam Scott ($9,000) has gained strokes off the tee in six of his last seven measured events and has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five measured events. He bounced back from a missed cut at the PGA Championship with a T12 at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Aaron Rai ($8,900) has two straight top-13 finishes at the RBC Canadian Open. He likes life north of the border. He has gained over 12 strokes combined on approach in his last three tournaments. His putter has gone cold, losing over 6 strokes combined in his last two tournaments, but his ball-striking numbers can’t be ignored.

Keith Mitchell ($8,700) See above.

Tom Kim ($8,600) has found his swing off the tee, gaining over 7.5 strokes combined off the tee in his last two tournaments. He still hasn’t been able to string four consecutive rounds together, as he only has two top 25s in his last 10 tournaments. I think this could be the week he finally puts four rounds together and contends.

Adam Hadwin ($8,500) has two top-12s in his last three RBC Candian Open tournaments including a 6th place here in 2019. He has six straight-made cuts and three top-six finishes in 2024. I’ll use Adam Hadwin this week, but his numbers don’t look great.

Davis Thompson ($7,800) See above.

Taylor Pendrith ($7,600) missed the cut on the number at the PGA Championship but was playing unreal golf before that. I can forgive him for that and take him at this low price, hoping he can overpower the golf course a bit.

Doug Ghim ($7,400) has two straight top-18 finishes at the RBC Candian Open, and he has made four out of his last five cuts on the PGA Tour. His T35 at the PGA Championship was a nice surprise as a $5,500 play that week.

Adam Svensson ($7,300) has made seven straight cuts and has gained over 3 strokes ball-striking in three straight tournaments. I think he’s a sneaky play as a low Canadian this week after posting his first top 25 since his T10 at the Genesis Invitational.

Séamus Power ($7,200) hasn’t teed it up since his T16 at the Wells Fargo Championship, where he gained over 8.3 strokes ball-striking.

Ryo Hisatsune ($7,000) gained almost 7 strokes on approach at the PGA Championship and is always a decent play if a tournament becomes a putting contest. You have to like his upside at this price.

C.T. Pan ($6,700) gained more than a stroke off the tee at the Charles Schwab Challenge for the first time since the Mexico Open in February. He finished 3rd in 2023 at the RBC Candian Open.

Kevin Tway ($6,700) has five straight made cuts on the PGA Tour and is coming off a T24 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He is doing a lot of his damage with his short game, so he won’t pop in my models where ball-striking is weighed heavily.

Mac Meissner ($6,500) has six top-26 finishes in his last nine events. He has gained over 9 strokes on approach in his last two events combined. He gained strokes across the board last week, finishing T5 at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Bud Cauley ($6,400) is coming off of two straight missed cuts, but he is the type of ball striker I am targeting this week. He will need to fix his putter to pay off, but he has produced decently when he is priced this low in weak events.

Patton Kizzire ($6,300) has four straight top-28 finishes. He has gained over 10 strokes combined on approach in his last two tournaments. He has gained over 2.4 strokes putting in two straight tournaments as well.

Gary Woodland ($6,200) has four straight made cuts in regular non-team events. He is finally putting well, as he has gained over 10.7 strokes putting combined in his last three tournaments. He has the length to make this course very small.

Ben Martin ($6,000) gained over 4.2 strokes on approach at the Charles Schwab Challenge. The last time he hit the ball that well he finished T7 at the Valero Texas Open the following week.

Pierceson Coody ($5,700) had his first top-5 finish on the PGA Tour last week at the Charles Shwab Challenge, where he gained over 3.3 strokes on approach. He struggled with his putter on Sunday.

Richard T. Lee ($5,500) is a decent dart throw at this low price with how well he has played on the Asian Tour. He has two top-13 finishes on that tour in his last three starts.

One and Done

Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings, and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. Reference this spreadsheet tracking who we have used.

Standings

• Hugh Kellenberger: $7,250,018.63
• Brody Miller: $6,439,921.16
• Dennis Esser: $2,480,211

Dennis Esser: I’m currently riding a three-week streak of WDs and Missed Cuts while using some of the biggest names in the professional golf world. I need a little bit of luck, and what better place to look for luck than the Irishman, Shane Lowry.

Brody Miller: Tom Kim is simultaneously not quite what we wanted him to be (yet) and still playing some consistent golf and hanging around leaderboards most weekends before falling off. In a relatively weak field, I like Kim to have a big week.

Hugh Kellenberger: A second-straight week where a renovated course has me downplaying course/event history, which I’ve leaned on the most so far this season to some success. So I’m looking for someone with a good body of work that’s gone undervalued — how about Alex Noren, who has a top 5, two total top 10s and eight top 25s in his last eight starts?

(Photo of Rory McIlroy: Matthew Maxey / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)